Skip to content
Pathey
Contact usJoin the waitlist

KNOW THE ODDSON EVERYINVESTMENT.

We rank prediction market picks (along with other things) by the probability they hit your goal. Not advice, just the math.

Join the waitlistHow the odds work
Not out yet. We will email you when it is.
Pathey's Routes screen showing goal progress and ranked routes including Stocks & ETFs and Polymarket

Why Pathey?

Where’s your next $100 hiding?

See the risks and rewards of prediction markets, debt products, options, equities, and more, all on the same platform.

Ranked against your goal, not a stranger’s benchmark.

See routes based on their probability of a successful outcome, or gain increased insight by creating a custom score.

We educate.

Pathey shows you the benefits and drawbacks of different investments. Create a portfolio and compare the merits of a prediction market bet versus an options trade.

A woman checking her phone at dusk beside a lake
Your routes, rankedIllustrative
01

SGOV · T-bills

iShares · fixed rate

88/100
02

VOO · S&P 500

Vanguard · index fund

82/100
03

Bitcoin dips to $45K · No

Polymarket · 96% odds

79/100
04

TSLA $300 put, sold

Options · cash-secured

74/100
05

Hurricane landfall · No

Kalshi · 83% odds

70/100
06

Fed holds in October

Polymarket · 71% odds

63/100
07

Chiefs win Sunday

Kalshi · 62% odds

55/100
08

TSLA $380 call

Options · 23 days

44/100
09

Cowboys make playoffs

Polymarket · 38% odds

41/100

One scale. Everything on it.

Illustrative
88 /100SGOV · T-billsiShares
82 /100VOO · S&P 500Vanguard
79 /100Bitcoin dips to $45K · NoPolymarket · 96%
70 /100Hurricane landfall · NoKalshi · 83%
44 /100TSLA $380 callOptions · 23 days
SaferFive different markets, one set of oddsRiskier

Every path to +$1,000, with the real odds.

“I have $10,000. I want $11,000 by Christmas.” Three ways to try, and what each one risks.

All in on one favourite

$10,000 on a 90¢ Polymarket pick. Nine times in ten you hit the goal in one shot. The tenth time, you lose everything.

Chance
90%
If it hits
$11,111
If it misses
$0

Hold VOO for a year Can’t wipe you out

$10,000 in the S&P 500 and leave it alone. It misses Christmas, but you’re unlikely to lose much.

Chance of +$1,000 in a year
About 60%
If it hits
$11,000+
If it misses
Around $9,000

Based on past years.

A $300 Tesla call, the rest in cash Only $300 at risk

Two contracts at $1.50. Tesla has to close above $406.50 by Christmas. The other $9,700 never moves.

Chance
About 10%
If it hits
$11,000
If it misses
$9,700

Illustrative figures.

Pathey's Opportunity screen for a Polymarket No at 96 cents on Bitcoin dipping to $45,000: 96% chance of goal, +$300 potential profit in 3 months on $6,759
Add a goal

Explore thousands of ways to hit your goal.

Tell Pathey how much you want to make and what you can put in. It scans every market you switch on and shows the odds of each one getting you there, ranked.

Searching for this goal2,418 routes found
  • Prediction marketsKalshi · Polymarket1,284 contracts
  • OptionsCalls · puts312 chains
  • Stocks & ETFsEquities · index funds4,100 tickers
  • Treasury billsSwitched off for this goal
Join the waitlist

No score is a black box.

The odds are the headline. Tap any score and it opens into the four factors behind it — chance, safety, capital and speed — weighted the way you choose. Same four lines for a T-bill fund and a prediction market.

How this route earned its score
Chance it works34.7 of 35 pts
Money kept safe25 of 25 pts
Capital needed1.3 of 30 pts
Speed5 of 10 pts
Add them up66 / 100

Higher score, better fit for your goal. Every route is scored the same way.

See how a score is built
Pathey's score breakdown screen showing each factor, its weight and the points it earned

We ping you when the odds move.

The odds on a route jump, a goal drifts off course, the day you hit your number. Pathey watches the odds so you can stop refreshing Kalshi and start packing.

9:41Saturday, June 14

Goal reached

Your Cabo goal hit its number today. Open Pathey for the breakdown.

Pathey's AI Coach answering what could go wrong with a T-bill route, followed by related routes
The coach

Ask why. Including what could go wrong.

It reads every number on the card and answers in plain English. It explains. It never tells you what to buy.

Why is the T-bill fund above the bet?
You weighted capital safety at 45%. T-bill funds score 94 there against 22 for the contract. That gap is worth 32 points on its own. Here is the line-by-line.
Get Pathey

Know the odds.
Before you invest.

Pathey is not out yet. Join the waitlist and we will email you when it is.

One email when it lands. Unsubscribe anytime.